Will Russia’s growing ties with China jeopardize its long standing ties with India? Read Arnav Jha’s report.
Image Credit source: PTI
in India Russian Ambassador Denis Alipov Russia on Thursday rejected all such analyzes claiming that Russia’s growing ties with China will jeopardize its long-standing ties with India. his comment Chinese President Xi Jinping has come just after the conclusion of a three-day visit to Russia where he President Vladimir Putin met with.
The two leaders discussed China’s alleged peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, apart from praising each other. There was also discussion on deepening military and economic ties between China and Russia.
Russia’s growing dependence on China
Since the start of the Ukraine war last year, Russia has become increasingly dependent on China for support, both economically and diplomatically. Russia is more isolated on the world stage than ever before.Certainly China has refrained from providing any direct military assistance to Russia during the military campaign in Ukraine, but this is in doubt as the US has recently accused China of considering supplying Russia with lethal weapons. have put.
Putting aside even vague support for military actions with Russia, China has made rapid strides in its economic ties with Russia in the past year. It is buying more oil from Russia to make up for the loss of European buyers, filling the gap with Western suppliers for everything from cars to smartphones. Above all, it is providing an alternative to the US dollar to Russia, isolated from the world’s banking system.
Russian trade with China grew by a third last year to a record high of $190 billion. This trend is expected to continue this year as well. Russia has now become the second largest supplier of oil to China and the fourth largest supplier of liquefied petroleum gas.
This year Russia is looking to further expand its natural resource exports to China with a new natural gas pipeline named ‘The Power of Siberia 2’. This is the next phase of the already existing 3,000 km long pipeline between Siberia and China’s Heilongjiang province.
Chinese companies making records in Russia
Chinese companies are making great strides in Russia as global brands have left the country. Of the 14 car brands present in Russia these days, 11 are Chinese and the remaining three are domestic brands. There is a similar situation in the smartphone market as well. Where earlier Chinese brands used to account for about 40 percent of Russia’s smartphone market, now it accounts for about 95 percent.
This reflects the larger trends happening in Russia-China relations. China is trying to compensate, to some extent, for what Western sanctions and boycotts are taking away from Russia. In its analysis of the country’s changing foreign trade structure, Russian news agency RBC wrote that China has increased deliveries of everything from tractors to boilers to Russia after Russia lost its access to Western markets.
Trying to remove the dollar from the Russian economy
The news agency also quoted Finnish economist Ikka Korhonen as saying that China could now account for 40 percent of Russia’s merchandise imports. This means that “If Russia is not the country most dependent on China in terms of imports, then it is at least the second country after North Korea.
As mentioned above, this has resulted in Russia eliminating the use of the dollar from its economy by using the Chinese Yuan. Russia’s trade with China is now being done using Yuan only.
Russian news agencies have also noted a dramatic increase in the share of the yuan in Russia’s foreign exchange market. The head of the Moscow Exchange is being quoted as saying that at the beginning of last year, where this share was around 0.2, it has increased to 48 percent in November 2022.
Russia is also increasing the amount of yuan it holds in its central bank’s reserves. The yuan is increasingly being used to stabilize its own currency, the ruble, and domestic financial markets. After this, of course, Russia’s economy is running under the policies set by the People’s Bank of China at the behest of the Chinese Communist Party.
This growing dependence has forced many Western observers to believe that Russia is slowly becoming a fiefdom of China. What has been mentioned so far shows only the economic aspect of this dependence. The diplomatic support given by China to Russia has not been taken into account for the time being which is preventing it from becoming a complete pariah country on the world stage.
How much will be the impact on India?
This dependence is expected to increase further in the coming times as Russia will be dependent on China for a long time even after the war continues and after the end of the war.All this does not mean that there is a danger of immediate breakdown of India’s relations with Russia. India is as dependent on Russia for military, economic and diplomatic support as it was in the erstwhile Soviet Union era. Despite India’s growing ties with the West and especially the US, its relations with Russia also remain strong.
Even a year after the start of the war, India has refrained from openly condemning Russia’s actions or participating in any international vote on it. Also, India has sharply increased its purchases of petroleum products from Russia, contrary to Western demands to cut energy revenues from Russia.Russia accounted for 28 percent of India’s total oil imports in January this year, which was just a little over 0.2 percent at the same time last year.
Additionally, India remains the world’s largest buyer of Russian military equipment despite ongoing efforts to diversify its purchases. Russian news agencies have reported that India has bought goods worth $10 billion from Russia in five years. Apart from this, India has booked Russian weapons and equipment worth 13 billion dollars, which will reach India in the coming time.
India’s support to Russia
On the diplomatic front, apart from refusing to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, India has also continued its diplomatic relations with Russia. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval went on a two-day visit to Russia last month where he also met President Vladimir Putin.Putin is expected to visit India for the G20 leaders’ meeting later this year, however, there is no official confirmation.
What is the future of relations between Russia and India?
One thing is certain that India’s relations with Russia are not going to deteriorate in the near future, no matter how many blunders Russia does with China. But this beautiful picture of friendship should not be seen as a guarantee of better relations in the long run.
Russia’s war with Ukraine continues. Russia is suffering more and more economic and military losses there from which it cannot recover easily. There is a possibility that it will depend to a great extent on China to maintain normalcy.
However, this does not mean that China will be able to change Russia’s international relations policy regarding India on the strength of its relations. It may be possible that Russia has limited space left to balance its strategic relations with India.
arms shopping
India’s purchase of arms from Russia is taking place at a time when border conflicts and tensions with China have increased. If China directly or indirectly asks Russia to stop its arms exports to India, how long can India depend on Russia for these supplies?
However, there is little chance that Russia will ever openly take China’s side on the border dispute with India. In the same way, Russia is less likely to take sides in China’s disputes against India as well. Now when the tension on India’s border is increasing, which is expected to increase further, India cannot tolerate the neutrality of its biggest strategic partner and arms supplier.
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Source: www.tv9hindi.com”