Is the coming together of Uddhav Thackeray and Prakash Ambedkar a sign of great danger for Shinde-Fadnavis? The 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are far away. What will be the impact in the elections of municipalities including BMC?
Cm Eknath Shinde Devendra Fadnavis
Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena has found a new partner in Maharashtra. He has joined hands with Prakash Ambedkar, the head of Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi. It is believed that only some conditions are being fixed. In a hurry, CM Eknath Shinde has also met People’s Republican Party’s Jogendra Kawade and his son Jaideep Kawade at Varsha Bungalow and Thackeray-Ambedkar They are engaged in finding the bite of Shivshakti-Bhimshakti. BJP It already has an alliance with Ramdas Athawale, the head of the Republican Party of India. In such a situation, the Thackeray-Ambedkar pair Shinde-Fadnavis Is it going to emerge as a serious threat for India?
At present, the situation is that Prakash Ambedkar has asked Uddhav Thackeray whether his alliance is going to be with Shiv Sena or whether his party Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi will be included as the fourth force of Mahavikas Aghadi. In both cases, what will be its effect on BJP and Shinde faction? Even before answering this question, it is important to know that even though Prakash Ambedkar is the grandson of Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar, Dalit forces in Maharashtra are divided into factions of Ramdas Athawale, Rajendra Gawai, Prakash Ambedkar and Jogendra Kawade. Prakash Ambedkar holds the power of one of these four factions. That is, Dalit voters are not gathered.
Prakash Ambedkar has no influence, so no pressure on BJP-Shinde
This is the reason why senior journalist Ashok Wankhede does not consider this alliance of Shivshakti and Bhimshakti as a big threat to BJP and Shinde faction. He says that the Lok Sabha and Vidhansabha elections are going to be held in 2024. For the time being, let us talk about the elections of the upcoming Mumbai Municipal Corporation and other Municipal Corporations. Prakash Ambedkar’s strength is limited to Akola. Then if they come with Shiv Sena, how much will Shiv Sena give them from their 30-35 percent seats? After this, Thackeray has also joined hands with Sambhaji Brigade, an organization of Marathas. How much share will be given to them? One has to think that the total Dalit power alone is ten to eleven percent, and that too is divided.
Wankhede says that Thackeray has no one, 75 percent of his own MLAs and MPs have left him, so he is adding organizations belonging to different communities to build the party afresh. But why would the Congress-NCP take Prakash Ambedkar into their alliance? Congress has already been getting Dalit votes especially in Mumbai. Or else the BJP has been getting the votes of Athawale’s supporters.
What is the benefit of Mahavikas Aghadi from Ambedkar? Then what will they get in return?
Wankhede says that Prakash Ambedkar does not even have a councillor. What is the benefit of Congress-NCP from Prakash Ambedkar? The different Republican parties of Ramdas Athawale and Jogendra Kovade have a fairly strong organization at different places. Then there is the influence of Rajendra Gawai in the area of Vidarbha. Ashok Wankhede says that Dalit voter votes after seeing the candidate. Not affiliated with any one party. Firstly, whether this alliance will happen or not, there is a doubt on that. If this happens, will the BMC go till the elections, there is a doubt on this. If it goes to BMC then it is difficult till 2024.
Ideology is the basis, the impact and possibilities are immense
But Sachin Parab, a senior journalist and editor of Marathi websites like Prabodhankar.com, Ringan, has a different opinion. They say that there is nothing new in this that Shivshakti and Bhima Shakti are coming together. The new thing is that both of them are related to the family of these two big ideals of Maharashtra. Both Uddhav Thackeray and Prakash Ambedkar’s grandfather were friends. Prabodhakkar Thackeray and Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar together contributed to the Samyukta Maharashtra movement. Prabodhan Thackeray raised his voice together against untouchability and supremacy of Brahmins. Even later, after the Emergency, Balasaheb Thackeray had joined hands with the Dalit organization of Namdev Dhasal.
Dalit Panther Party leader Namdev Dhasal stayed with Shiv Sena for a long time. Both had supported the implementation of Indira Gandhi’s Emergency. Balasaheb Thackeray often used to say that his Hindutva is not the Hindutva of Janeu and Chutiya. Now Uddhav Thackeray is also talking like this that his Hindutva is not the Hindutva of BJP. That is, Balasaheb Thackeray’s non-acceptance of caste discrimination has been a big factor in connecting Dalits to Shiv Sena. In such a situation, if Shivshakti and Bhimshakti are found, then definitely both Thackeray and Ambedkar will be benefited.
There are Dalit pockets in many places in BMC, which can be useful for Shiv Sena.
Sachin Parab says, especially if we talk about BMC, even 500-1000 voters are enough. Dalit voters who are not ideologically with BJP and all cannot be with Athawale, get a reason to vote for them. In Mumbai, there is a sizeable number of Dalits in Central and East Mumbai like Chembur, Ghatkopar, Ramabai Ambedkar, Shivaji Nagar, Mankhurd Powai. That is, out of 236 seats, Dalits are in a position to influence 60-65 seats. In these pockets, Shiv Sena can be of great benefit by coming together with Prakash Ambedkar. Apart from Prakash Ambedkar, the rest of the Dalit forces in Maharashtra have been taking along only the neo-Buddhists. But Prakash Ambedkar has done the politics of organizing all the small castes. This is called his ‘Akola pattern’.
Shiv Sena and Dalit forces also have a bloody history against each other
Abhijit Kamble, editor of Maharashtra Times’ Marathi news website of Times Group, does not agree with Sachin Parab that Shivshakti and Bhimshakti have always come together, there is nothing new in this. But they definitely agree that both Thackeray and Ambedkar will be benefited in the upcoming BMC and other municipal elections by the meeting of Shiv Shakti and Bhim Shakti.
Abhijit Kamble reminds me of the Worli riots in Mumbai in the seventies. In which there was a bloody struggle between Shiv Sena and Dalits. They also say that Balasaheb Thackeray had opposed the demand for renaming Marathwada University after Babasaheb Ambedkar. He had said, ‘If there is no Peeth (flour) in the house, then why do we need a university’. So political exigencies are one thing and finding ideological commonalities is another. The ideological basis is absolutely baseless.
Enmity has turned into friendship, it will definitely be beneficial
Abhijit Kamble says that the enmity between the Ambedkarites and the Shiv Sainiks has ended under Uddhav’s rule. Uddhav is talking more like an enlightener than Balasaheb Thackeray. They have gone with Congress and NCP. Dalits have traditionally been voting for the Congress. That is, a big ideological gap, due to which enmity had arisen between Shiv Sena and Dalit power, is turning into friendship. Both Ambedkar and Thackeray will definitely get the benefit of this.
Here this thing has been completely different from the thinking of those who believe that Shivshakti-Bhimshakti has been moving together, so even now it is natural to have an alliance and it has to be beneficial. Here Abhijeet is saying that these two have not been walking together. There has been enmity between the two, but now when friendship is taking place, trust will increase and both will be benefited. Abhijit Kamble does not accept the friendship of enlightener Thackeray and Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar. They say that Thackeray, the enlightener, did not have any political organization, he was a social reformer. Shiv Sena as a political organization means Balasaheb Thackeray. They say that the advantage of turning this enmity into friendship would be that the Dalit voters who do not ideologically support the BJP have got a reason to vote for them.
Source: www.tv9hindi.com”