BJP President JP Nadda and RLD Chief Jayant Chaudhary
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while speaking on the President's address in Parliament, has expressed confidence of forming the government for the third time in 2024. Also claimed to get 370 seats for BJP and 400 seats for NDA. In this view, BJP has set a target of winning all 80 Lok Sabha seats of UP, to achieve which it is trying to increase the strength of its NDA alliance. After including SubhaSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar, now plans are being made to bring RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary along with him.
BJP has planned to give a big blow to the opposition India alliance by including RLD in the state. Jayant Chaudhary has also been offered 4 seats. BJP may increase the scope of its alliance in the state by taking RLD with it, but it will narrow its political ground.
BJP will have four allies in UP!
Compared to the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP may have to try its luck on fewer seats in the 2024 elections. The reason behind this is that instead of one, BJP now has four allies. In 2014 and 2019, BJP had contested the elections in alliance with Anupriya Patel's Apna Dal (S). Apna Dal (S) has been fielding candidates on 2 seats and BJP on 78 parliamentary seats. But, this time BJP will have to share seats with Apna Dal (S) along with Sanjay Nishad's Nishad Party, Om Prakash Rajbhar's SubhaSP and if Jayant Choudhary comes, then RLD.
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Apart from Apna Dal (S) in UP, alliance with BJP is final with OP Rajbhar's Subhashpa, Sanjay Nishad's Nishad Party while Sanjay Chauhan's Janwadi Party and Premchand Bind's Pragatisheel Manav Samaj Party are in line. Apart from this, the alliance deal with RLD is also being finalized. By joining hands with these small caste based parties, BJP has definitely expanded its alliance clan, but for that it will have to give seats from its quota. In such a situation, not only will BJP have to fight on fewer seats than in the last two Lok Sabha elections, but if Jayant Chaudhary gets four seats, then Anupriya Patel and Sanjay Nishad can also increase their demands.
seats will have to be distributed
Till now, BJP has been contesting the remaining 78 seats by giving two seats to Apna Dal, but this time it will have to share seats with Rajbhar along with Nishad and Jayant Chaudhary. There is talk of giving four seats to RLD. BJP has offered to give Baghpat, Amroha, Mathura and Hathras seats to RLD. Apart from this, RLD is also demanding one more seat, which is Muzaffarnagar seat.
If BJP gives four seats to RLD, Apna Dal (S) may also have to give the same number of seats. At present RLD has 9 MLAs, and they are being given four seats, whereas Apna Dal has 13 MLAs. On this basis she can increase her demand. On this basis, will Nishad and SubhaSP also increase their demand?
The team may be small but the aspirations are big
Caste based parties may be small, but their political aspirations are quite big. All the allies of NDA in UP have started demanding seats. Apna Dal (S) party, which has contested elections on two seats for the last two times, is preparing to contest on five seats this time. Mirzapur, Jalaun, Pratapgarh, Ambedkar Nagar and Fatehpur Lok Sabha seats are included. It is believed that Apna Dal (S) wants to contest elections on at least three seats this time.
In 2019, Apna Dal (S) had contested the Lok Sabha elections from Mirzapur and Sonbhadra seats. During the NDA meeting itself, Apna Dal (S) President Anupriya Patel has told the BJP top leadership that while deciding the Lok Sabha seats, the distribution should be done keeping in mind the number of Apna Dal (S) MLAs. Apna Dal (S) had contested more seats than before in the 2022 assembly elections and the number of its MLAs has also reached 13. In such a situation, the party seems to be increasing the demand for seats in the 2024 elections.
Another ally of BJP in UP is Dr. Sanjay Nishad, who also has his base in Purvanchal. In 2019, Sanjay Nishad had made his son contest from Sant Kabir Nagar seat on BJP symbol, but in 2022 he had fielded candidates on his election symbol. In this context, Nishad wants to contest elections in 2024 on his own symbol, for which his demand is for three seats. Om Prakash Rajbhar, who has come with BJP, is ready to contest elections on three Lok Sabha seats, which include Ghazipur, Mau and Chandauli seats.
Tension will increase for NDA
BJP has expanded its political clan in UP, due to which the seat sharing formula has also become a challenge. There is seat sharing from Apna Dal (S) to Om Prakash Rajbhar and Sanjay Nishad. Apna Dal (S) aspires to get more seats than other allies in the NDA in 2024. Apna Dal (S) has 13 MLAs, OP Rajbhar has 6 MLAs, Sanjay Nishad's party has 6 MLAs and RLD has 9 MLAs.
In 2022, while being with NDA, Apna Dal (S) had contested on 17 seats while Nishad Party had 6 candidates from Sarvan Nishad and 10 from Sanjay Nishad camp. OP Rajbhar had contested the elections in 2022 along with SP and fielded candidates on 17 seats. From the point of view of 2023 assembly, all three parties want to try their luck in the Lok Sabha elections, which is not easy for BJP to solve. Even if Jayant Chaudhary enters, there may be problems. Jayant Choudhary had contested the elections in 2022 along with SP and had fielded its candidates on 36 seats and in the Lok Sabha also, SP was giving him seven seats.
If BJP gives two seats each to Nishad Party and SubhaSP, then Apna Dal (S) would like to contest elections on more seats than that. In such a situation, BJP will have to give seats to its allies from its quota only. In such a situation, it may be very difficult for BJP to decide the seat sharing formula. Will it distribute the seats on the basis of the number of MLAs or will it make the criteria based on the candidates contesting the assembly elections in 2022. In this exercise, will BJP itself have to give seats from its quota?